Political Figures Predictions: Chatham and Aylesford

In which Alan Collins from Medway Elects takes a look at what the General Election what might bring for Chatham and Aylesford..

It’s the most wonderful time of the year. No, not Christmas, but the one where almost everyone in Medway with access to the internet seems to cry out for change, only for the Conservatives to be re-elected by a wide margin.

So for this series of articles, Messrs Jennings and Keevil have asked their resident data nerd to run the numbers and try to predict, on the numbers alone, whether that mythical change might happen, or whether we will wake up on 13 December to the news that the three Conservative candidates have been re-elected.

To answer that question I shall be taking a look at what the data from the 2015 general election tells us about what might happen next month. No, I’ve not forgotten that we also voted in 2017. However, the election in 2015 presents an extra set of data which is infinitely more useful in comparing how the attitudes of Medway’s voters has shifted: the local elections. I shall, therefore, be taking a look at how the results in each ward for Medway’s three constituencies changed between 2015 and 2019, and using that to try and determine whether any of our three MPs are likely to be queuing up outside a job centre on 13 December.

I have form for this. A comparison of the shift in local election behaviour was one of the key principles behind the data model I produced in 2010 which, as I explained at the beginning of the year on this very website, was remarkably accurate. Whilst I have created a similar model for this year, it comes with its own caveat: there are additional parameters to account for both the 2015 and 2017 general elections, so essentially there is more data to go wrong in the projections that have been generated for each constituency. Just to fill you all with confidence…

That said, these have only ever been projections, not predictions, and the usual caveat that they are only a snapshot of where support likely sits, not a demonstrative prediction of what the vote will actually be, applies.

Continue reading “Political Figures Predictions: Chatham and Aylesford”

5 weeks of imperfect balance

In which Caitlin Webb, the UK’s first Local Democracy Reporter, explains to us what purdah is, and how much it impacts an election campaign..

There’s a general election coming. There’s nothing more exciting for a political journalist. It’s where politics gets all serious and things could be really shaken up. We have now entered purdah, the pre-election period.

What is purdah and why is it so important? 

Continue reading “5 weeks of imperfect balance”

It never ends: General Election set for 12 December

Once more unto the breach, dear friends.

After seeming imminent for about a year now, the House of Commons today voted to move forward with a General Election on 12 December in attempt to break the current parliamentary deadlock.

Of course, we’ll be providing full coverage of this election from the Medway perspective in the coming weeks.

For now, we’d like to remind you to ensure that you are registered to vote. Under the current system, you need to register again each time you move, so please check now that you are properly registered even if you think that you are.

So far, the majority of local political parties have so far selected their candidates for this election. Assuming all three Conservative MPs seek re-election, we also have confirmed Liberal Democrat and Brexit Party candidates. So far, Labour is the only main party to not offer any candidates, despite being the main opposition party in Medway.

This election will be the eighth time Medway has gone to the polls since we started this stupid website less than five years ago, so strap in and follow along. It’s going to be a long six weeks.

European elections in Medway are today!

It is European election day Medway.

Across the area and the UK, voters have the chance to elect the MEPs that may or may not represent us in the European Parliament for the next five years.

Medway is part of the South East region, which will select 10 MEPs on a proportional basis.

Polling stations are now open and remain open until 10pm.

If you have received your polling card, you will know where you need to go to vote. If you are registered to vote but have not received your card, you do not need it to vote. Just go to your polling station, confirm your name and address, and you will be allowed to vote. No ID is required.

If you have a postal vote, but did not remember to return it in time, you can drop it in to your polling station up until polls close at 10pm.

To find who our candidates are, Medway Elects have a handy list of each party and their list of candidates.

Once the polls close at 10pm, we will begin waiting with baited breath for the results, which will likely arrive somewhere around midnight on Sunday.

Brexit must mean exit

Ahead of the European elections, we asked representatives from the major parties to submit an article making the case for their party. Today, former Medway UKIP group leader Roy Freshwater puts forward the argument for his party..

Mrs. May’s Withdrawal Agreement (treaty) is a complete betrayal of the referendum decision. 88,997 Medway residents voted on the 23rd June 2016 to leave the EU and take back control of our money, our laws and our borders. The government made up of ‘remainers’ and mostly elitist MPs after three years has presented us with a ‘Not Really Leaving the EU Withdrawal Agreement’. It will not satisfy leavers or remainers, and cost many millions in payments to the EU that should be spent on improving the lives of British communities and Medway communities. Its intention is to make it possible to reverse the referendum decision or, if it is implemented, to pave the way for re-entry to the EU in a few years’ time.

Continue reading “Brexit must mean exit”

The ghost of European elections future

Once a month we hand over to Alan Collins from Medway Elects who digs into the Medway electoral data to try to tell us what it all means. This month we sent him the fun task of looking at data from previous European elections..

Just when you thought it was safe to open the mail without fearing a party political begging letter from the [insert name here] party, fresh off the close of #MedwayElects19, you are now likely to instead be bombarded with campaign literature for the elections no one gives a fig about – and if the politicians in Westminster had pulled their fingers out (or something) wouldn’t be taking place.

So in the spirit of getting everyone excited for #MedwayElects19version2 (other hashtags are available), Jennings and Keevil have pulled me out of data analysis retirement to look at the ghost of European elections past.

Strap in!

Continue reading “The ghost of European elections future”

So, farewell then.. 2019 edition

So, farewell then to no less than 17 Medway councillors.

Between councillors losing their seats, retirements, and deselections, a little under a third of councillors who were in office last week ago no longer are. I thought it’d be nice to take a look at those who will no longer be gracing the council chamber. Consider this like the ‘in memoriam’ section at the Oscars, just without the glitz, glamour, and likeable personalities. Continue reading “So, farewell then.. 2019 edition”

Live results from #MedwayElects19

The polls have closed in Medway’s local elections, and we are settled in at Medway Park. We’ll be bringing you the results as they come in throughout the night.

For up to the minute coverage, we recommend you follow us on Twitter. The latest tweets are embedded below, but if you click through to Twitter where you can see everything.

Results will start trickling in sometime after midnight, with final results due sometime around 7am. It’ll be a long night, so feel free to buy us a coffee.

Live results (55 seats of 55 declared / 28 needed for a majority)
Conservative: 33 seats (-3)

Labour: 20 seats (+5)
Independents: 2 seats (+2)
UKIP: 0 seats (-4)
Liberal Democrats: 0 seats (-)
Green: 0 seats (-)
Christian People’s Alliance: 0 seats (-)
Animal Welfare Party: 0 seats (-)

Councillors elected by ward
Cuxton and Halling – Matt Fearn (Con)
Rainham North – Kirstine Carr (Con), Martin Potter (Con)
Hempstead and Wigmore – Diane Chambers (Con), Rodney Chambers (Con)
Rochester East – Nick Bowler (Lab), Teresa Murray (Lab)
Princes Park – Tashi Bhutia (Con), Gloria Opara (Con)
Twydall – Hazel Browne (Lab), John Lloyd (Lab), Mark Prenter (Lab)
River – Habib Tejan (Con), Piers Thompson (Con)
Luton and Wayfield: Simon Curry (Lab), Joanne Howcroft-Scott (Lab), Tristan Osborne (Lab)
Lordswood and Capstone: Alan Jarrett (Con), David Wildey (Con)
Watling: Wendy Purdy (Con), Chrissy Stamp (Lab)
Rochester West: Alex Paterson (Lab), Stuart Tranter (Con)
Walderslade: David Brake (Con), Adrian Gulvin (Con)
Gillingham North: Pat Cooper (Lab), Adam Price (Lab), Andy Stamp (Lab)
Chatham Central: Siju Adeoye (Lab), Harinder Mahil (Lab), Vince Maple (Lab)
Rochester South and Horsted: Trevor Clarke (Con), Sylvia Griffin (Con), Rupert Turpin (Con)
Strood Rural: Gary Etheridge (Con), Elizabeth Turpin (Con), John Williams (Con)
Strood North: Jane Chitty (Con), Stephen Hubbard (Lab), Steve Iles (Con)
Peninsula: Phil Filmer (Con), Mick Pendergast (Ind), Ron Sands (Ind)
Gillingham South: Clive Johnson (Lab), Naushabah Khan (Lab), Dan McDonald (Lab)
Strood South: Chris Buckwell (Con), Josie Iles (Con), Richard Thorne (Con)
Rainham South: Roger Barrett (Con), Howard Doe (Con), Gary Hackwell (Con)
Rainham Central: Nurat Ahmed (Con), Jan Aldous (Con), Barry Kemp (Con)